QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Infrastructure construction
MasTec MTZ
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 57% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $144.17−23%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −57%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.64
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $186.06
- Fair value est.base case$144.17−22.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$171.05−8.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$186.06you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$437.51+135.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.5%; bull = 8.5% and 15.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MTZ’s free cash flow would need to grow about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MTZ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.64
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.40
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.48
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 146% to $5.07 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 26% to $17.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $2.3B at FY2025, 24% less than at FY2023.
GrowthSales grew 14% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 4.5% median for the 146 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $144.17, 23% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.0×, above the 0.5× median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 1.5% over 12 months, above the −0.8% median for the 137 Industrials companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.64 vs the S&P 500 and 52% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on MasTec in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
All fundamentals
P/E 30.7 · FCF yield 2.7% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 30.7×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 36.7×
- FCF yield
- 2.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.86×
- Price / book
- 3.67×
- Market cap
- $14.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $18.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $17.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +25.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.13
- EPS growth, last FY
- +146.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $484M
- Net income growth
- +46%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 2.8%
- FCF margin
- 2.3%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $482M
- Total debt
- $4.2B
- Net cash
- −$3.7B
- Debt / equity
- 1.03×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $405M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −3%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $0
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $39M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From MasTec’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $144.17 · FCF value $45.54
Assumes 13.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.07 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days +8.8%
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin13%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MTZ is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.