QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Steel
Carpenter Technology CRS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 54% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $135.27−52%
- Market Value
- $287.98price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −54%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.62
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $283.08
- Fair value est.base case$135.27−52.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$280.00−1.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$283.08you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$287.98+1.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$619.25+118.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.0%; bull = 8.5% and 9.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CRS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 21% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CRS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.62
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.43
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.42
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 22.5% in FY2026 from 11.7% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 30.6% in FY2026 from 21.2% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 42% to $10.52 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 28% over the last 12 months, up 12 points in two years.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 22%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $135.27, 52% below the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.4%, below the 3.5% median for the 144 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.3%, below the 1.1% median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 6.5×, above the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Carpenter Technology in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Steel
All fundamentals
P/E 24.8 · FCF yield 2.4% · ROE 28%
Valuation
- P/E
- 24.8×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 41.5×
- FCF yield
- 2.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.4×
- Price / sales
- 4.44×
- Price / book
- 6.48×
- Market cap
- $14.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $14.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.34
- EPS growth, last FY
- +41.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $570M
- Net income growth
- +38%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 31.2%
- Operating margin
- 23.4%
- Net margin
- 17.9%
- FCF margin
- 10.7%
- Return on equity
- 28%
- Return on invested capital
- 22%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $160M
- Total debt
- $691M
- Net cash
- −$532M
- Debt / equity
- 0.32×
- Interest coverage
- 22.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $341M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +27%
- Dividend yield
- 0.28%$40M paid
- Payout ratio
- 7%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $264M1.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $27M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Carpenter Technology’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $135.27 · MV $287.98 · FCF value $100.42
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 7.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.0% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.82 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026. Net debt $532M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 23 · 5 days −0.6%
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin31%
- Operating margin25%
- Return on invested capital23%
- Return on equity28%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CRS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.