QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oilfield Services/Equipment
National Energy Services Reunited NESR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 42% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 24% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $42.67+104%
- Market Value
- $27.53price −24%
- Off 52-wk high
- −42%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.69
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 42% below its 52-week high (Aug 14), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 42% below its 52-week high.
The price is 42% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.6B → $1.6B (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.90 → $0.90 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$156M → $156M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin9.3% → 9.3% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Energy)stock −42%, sector median +3% since Aug 14changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −42%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 24.0× at the high → 13.8× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 14, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($36.31, Aug 14) the price assumed about 10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 1%. The last 3 years delivered 13%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 13%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $36.31Aug 14 | $20.97 |
| Implied growth | +10% | +1% |
| P/E | 40.1× | 23.2× |
| P/FCF | 24.0× | 13.8× |
| EV/Sales | 2.4× | 1.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.3%; bull = 8.5% and 15.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NESR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NESR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.69
- Volatility
- 59% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.36
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.36
How it ranks
Where NESR stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate104% · price below our base caseTop 8%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield7.2% · free cash flow vs market capTop 22%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Operating margin9.3% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 41%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital11% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 49%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $42.67 · MV $27.53 · FCF value $34.95
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 13.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.51 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. Net debt $100M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $42.67, 104% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.2% (price / FCF 13.8×): $156M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 13% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 7.8×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ValuationTrades 23.8% below its Market Value of $27.53, the average price paid since the Aug 10 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 35% to $0.52 in FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count up 5.7% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationP/E of 23.2×, above the 15.9× median for the 73 Energy companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
RiskReports earnings Nov 9 (consensus EPS $0.36): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 23.2 · FCF yield 7.2% · ROE 9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.2×Energy median 15.9×
- Price / FCF
- 13.8×
- FCF yield
- 7.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.8×
- Price / sales
- 1.34×
- Price / book
- 2.08×
- Market cap
- $2.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.92
- EPS growth, last FY
- −35.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $93M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 13.4%
- Operating margin
- 9.3%
- Net margin
- 5.8%
- FCF margin
- 9.7%
- Return on equity
- 9%
- Return on invested capital
- 11%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $175M
- Total debt
- $275M
- Net cash
- −$100M
- Debt / equity
- 0.26×
- Interest coverage
- 5.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $156M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +5.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $10M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From National Energy Services Reunited’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +59%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin13%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity9%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+59%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $20.97
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.31−41.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$20.97you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 10$27.53+31.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$36.31+73.2%
- Fair value est.base case$42.67+103.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days +3.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.36
- Year-ago EPS$0.16
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
NESR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on National Energy Services Reunited in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oilfield Services/Equipment
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.