QualityDipStocks / Miscellaneous · Industrial machinery
Novanta NOVT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 13% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $47.71−67%
- Market Value
- $145.80at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −13%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.99
1 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 13% below its 52-week high (Aug 17), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 13% below its 52-week high.
The price is 13% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.0B → $1.0B (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.50 → $1.50 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$114M → $114M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin9.0% → 9.0% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Miscellaneous)stock −13%, sector median −1% since Aug 17about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −13%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 60.8× at the high → 52.7× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 17, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($168.75, Aug 17) the price assumed about 28%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($99.22, Nov 20) about 17%; today about 25%. The last 3 years delivered −12%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −12%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $168.75Aug 17 | $99.22Nov 20 | $146.24 |
| Implied growth | +28% | +17% | +25% |
| P/E | 112.5× | 67.7× | 97.5× |
| P/FCF | 60.8× | 34.8× | 52.7× |
| EV/Sales | 6.3× | 4.1× | 5.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.4%; bull = 8.5% and 6.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NOVT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 25% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NOVT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.99
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.49
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.48
How it ranks
Where NOVT stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate67% · price above our base caseLowest 5%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield1.9% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 26%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 29%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7.6% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 41%of 1,814
- Operating margin9% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 39%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital6.3% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 32%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $47.71 · MV $145.80 · FCF value $79.77
Assumes 4.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.78 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net cash $489M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 1 of 5
Balance sheetNet cash of $489M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jul 3, 2026).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $47.71, 67% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 97.5× vs a 23.4× median for the 7 Miscellaneous companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 14.1% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 9.6% in FY2025 from 12.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
P/E 97.5 · FCF yield 1.9% · ROE 5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 97.5×Miscellaneous median 23.4×
- Price / FCF
- 52.7×
- FCF yield
- 1.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 35.9×
- Price / sales
- 5.85×
- Price / book
- 3.72×
- Market cap
- $6.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.58
- EPS growth, last FY
- −16.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $62M
- Net income growth
- +1%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 44.5%
- Operating margin
- 9.0%
- Net margin
- 6.0%
- FCF margin
- 11.1%
- Return on equity
- 5%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $719M
- Total debt
- $230M
- Net cash
- $489M
- Debt / equity
- 0.14×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $114M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −3%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $52M0.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +14.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $35M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 3, 2026. From Novanta’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin44%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $146.24
- Fair value est.base case$47.71−67.4%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$99.22−32.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$145.80−0.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$146.24you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$168.75+15.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +1.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.97
- Year-ago EPS$0.87
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
NOVT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Novanta in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.