QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Electric utilities
NRG Energy NRG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 48% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 11% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $26.01−73%
- Market Value
- $107.73price −11%
- Off 52-wk high
- −48%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.37
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $96.06
- Fair value est.base case$26.01−72.9%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$92.31−3.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$96.06you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$107.73+12.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$184.03+91.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NRG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 27% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NRG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.37
- Volatility
- 49% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.36
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.34
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 6.0% in FY2025 from 1.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 22% over the last 12 months, up 56 points in two years.
GrowthSales grew 13% to $33.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.2% ($439M paid over 12 months, 56% of earnings).
ValuationTrades 10.8% below its Market Value of $107.73, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $26.01, 73% below the price.
Balance sheetNet debt of $23.2B, 114% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 75% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.0× over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 6.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on NRG Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electric utilities
All fundamentals
P/E 26.0 · FCF yield 1.7% · ROE 22%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.0×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- 58.5×
- FCF yield
- 1.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.9×
- Price / sales
- 0.61×
- Price / book
- 4.19×
- Market cap
- $20.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $43.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $33.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.84
- EPS growth, last FY
- −19.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $782M
- Net income growth
- +72%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 6.1%
- Net margin
- 2.4%
- FCF margin
- 1.1%
- Return on equity
- 22%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $162M
- Total debt
- $23.4B
- Net cash
- −$23.2B
- Debt / equity
- 4.82×
- Interest coverage
- 2.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $348M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −75%
- Dividend yield
- 2.16%$439M paid
- Payout ratio
- 56%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.6B8.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +8.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $144M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From NRG Energy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $26.01 · MV $107.73 · FCF value $37.49
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.9% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.64 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026. Net debt $23.2B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 43 · 5 days +4.1%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin19%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity27%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA6.2×
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, before the open
- Consensus EPS$3.33
- Year-ago EPS$2.75
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
NRG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.