QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Electric utilities
Talen Energy TLN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $381.74+11%
- Market Value
- $331.48price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.99
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $343.12
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$282.15−17.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$331.48−3.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$343.12you are here
- Fair value est.base case$381.74+11.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$438.12+27.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TLN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TLN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.99
- Volatility
- 57% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.45
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.49
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 61% to $3.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $381.74, 11% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 22% a year from FY2024 to FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count down 4.2% in a year: $298M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.6%, above the −3.1% median for the 49 Utilities companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.2× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $185M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt is 5.9× shareholders’ equity.
Balance sheetNet debt of $9.3B, 59% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 16.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Talen Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electric utilities
All fundamentals
FCF yield 3.6% · ROE -13% · Sales +61%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 27.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 60.0×
- Price / sales
- 4.58×
- Price / book
- 9.75×
- Market cap
- $15.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $25.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +60.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.0%/yrfrom FY2024
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$4.04
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$185M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 2.6%
- Net margin
- −5.4%
- FCF margin
- 16.5%
- Return on equity
- −13%
- Return on invested capital
- 1%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $231M
- Total debt
- $9.6B
- Net cash
- −$9.3B
- Debt / equity
- 5.92×
- Interest coverage
- 0.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $568M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $298M1.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $568M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Talen Energy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $381.74 · MV $331.48 · FCF value $292.78
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 22.0% a year FY24–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $12.37 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $9.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days +4.6%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +111%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.4%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin−5%
- Return on invested capital−1%
- Return on equity−13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+111%
- Net debt / EBITDA16.1×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$8.42
- Year-ago EPS$2.38
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TLN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.