QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Nutanix NTNX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 10% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 4% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $88.77+32%
- Market Value
- $69.93price −4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.79
5 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $67.21
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$34.41−48.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$67.21you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 26$69.93+4.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$74.63+11.0%
- Fair value est.base case$88.77+32.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NTNX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NTNX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.79
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.18
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $88.77, 32% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 13.0× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 9.6% in FY2026 from 0.4% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 15% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ValuationTrades 3.9% below its Market Value of $69.93, the average price paid since the Aug 26 filing.
Top bearish points 1 of 5
ValuationPrice / book of 28.0×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Nutanix in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 13.0 · FCF yield 4.3% · Sales +12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.0×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 23.4×
- FCF yield
- 4.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.88×
- Price / book
- 27.95×
- Market cap
- $19.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +15.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.17
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.5B
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 86.8%
- Operating margin
- 9.6%
- Net margin
- 52.8%
- FCF margin
- 29.5%
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.4B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $841M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +12%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $484M2.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $358M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Nutanix’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $88.77 · MV $69.93 · FCF value $63.55
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 15.3% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.88 a share (fiscal year to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-K filed Sep 18, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 40 · 5 days −4.8%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +16%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin26%
- Gross margin87%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on equity37460%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
NTNX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.