QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
PTC PTC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 2% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $216.79+11%
- Market Value
- $193.28price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −2%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.55
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $195.54
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$112.33−42.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 5$193.28−1.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$195.54you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$198.54+1.5%
- Fair value est.base case$216.79+10.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.3%; bull = 8.5% and 14.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PTC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PTC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.55
- Volatility
- 49% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.14
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.06
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 95% to $6.08 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 35.9% in FY2025 from 21.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $216.79, 11% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 18.4× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 4.6% in a year: $1.4B of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $1.59): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on PTC in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 18.4 · FCF yield 4.2% · ROE 35%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.4×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 24.0×
- FCF yield
- 4.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.3×
- Price / sales
- 7.61×
- Price / book
- 6.48×
- Market cap
- $22.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $23.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +19.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.31
- EPS growth, last FY
- +94.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Net income growth
- +139%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 84.5%
- Operating margin
- 37.8%
- Net margin
- 41.4%
- FCF margin
- 31.7%
- Return on equity
- 35%
- Return on invested capital
- 20%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $351M
- Total debt
- $1.4B
- Net cash
- −$1.0B
- Debt / equity
- 0.40×
- Interest coverage
- 17.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $935M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +10%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.4B6.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $241M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From PTC’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $216.79 · MV $193.28 · FCF value $217.78
Assumes 12.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.14 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 31, 2026. Net debt $1.0B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 79 · 5 days +0.9%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales −7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin32%
- Gross margin84%
- Operating margin38%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity33%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−7%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.7×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.59
- Year-ago EPS$3.10
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
PTC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.