QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Biotech
Novavax NVAX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 26% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 9% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
Worth knowing
- Net cash = 27% of its market cap
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $10.49price −9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.04
52-week range 50% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $9.53Market Value $10.49
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 26% below its 52-week high (Oct 13), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 26% below its 52-week high.
The price is 26% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 6 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$414M → $414M (0.0%)about the same
- Operating margin−56.6% → −56.6% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+2.0% (more shares, each owns less)about the same
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −26%, sector median +4% since Oct 13changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −26%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Oct 13, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk low: P/E 3.0×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $12.82Oct 13 | $6.22Nov 20 | $9.53 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | n/a | 3.0× | n/a |
| EV/Sales | 4.1× | — | 2.8× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for NVAX: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NVAX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.04
- Volatility
- 71% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.37
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.34
How it ranks
Where NVAX stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield−2.6% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 14%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−62% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 1%of 2,184
- Operating margin−57% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 2%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $10.49
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 93.5% in FY2025 from 65.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 40.3% in FY2025 from −57.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $428M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
Cash returnsShare count down 7.1% in a year.
ValuationTrades 9.1% below its Market Value of $10.49, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$42M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
GrowthSales fell 62% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -10.7× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $248M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; no return-on-capital data; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
FCF yield -2.6% · Sales −62%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −2.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 3.87×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.6Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $1.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $414M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −61.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −17.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.35
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$248M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 78.6%
- Operating margin
- −56.6%
- Net margin
- −59.9%
- FCF margin
- −10.2%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $719M
- Total debt
- $291M
- Net cash
- $428M
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -10.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$42M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $32M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Novavax’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales −76%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield-2.6%
- Gross margin−3%
- Operating margin−90%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−76%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $9.53
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$6.22−34.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$9.53you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$10.49+10.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$12.82+34.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days +1.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS($0.37)
- Year-ago EPS($0.62)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
NVAX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Novavax in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Biotech
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.