QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Marine Transportation
Navigator NVGS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 20% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its share count is unclear.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 9% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −20%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.39
52-week range 42% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $20.00
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 20% below its 52-week high (Sep 17), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 20% below its 52-week high.
The price is 20% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$587M → $587M (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.47 → $1.47 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$117M → $117M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin28.2% → 28.2% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −20%, sector median +6% since Sep 17changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −20%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 14.6× at the high → 11.7× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Sep 17, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($25.06, Sep 17) the price assumed about 2%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about −2%. The last 3 years delivered 11%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 11%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $25.06Sep 17 | $20.00 |
| Implied growth | +2% | −2% |
| P/E | 17.0× | 13.6× |
| P/FCF | 14.6× | 11.7× |
| EV/Sales | 2.9× | 2.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for NVGS: SEC share count doesn't match the listed shares. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NVGS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.39
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.12
How it ranks
Where NVGS stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield8.6% · free cash flow vs market capTop 17%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield1.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 34%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+3.6% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 25%of 2,184
- Operating margin28% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 12%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital12% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 40%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
FCF value $45.83
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.6% (price / FCF 11.7×): $117M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 13.6× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 4.6×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 24% to $1.47 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 28.2% in FY2025 from 24.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 3.0× over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 45% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 8.2%, below the 15% median for the 409 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $0.38): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 13.6 · FCF yield 8.6% · ROE 8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 11.7×
- FCF yield
- 8.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 4.6×
- Price / sales
- 2.32×
- Price / book
- 1.11×
- Market cap
- $1.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $587M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.47
- EPS growth, last FY
- +23.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $100M
- Net income growth
- +17%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 28.2%
- Net margin
- 17.1%
- FCF margin
- 19.9%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- 12%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $155M
- Total debt
- $168M
- Net cash
- −$13M
- Debt / equity
- 0.14×
- Interest coverage
- 3.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $117M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −45%
- Dividend yield
- 1.08%$15M paid
- Payout ratio
- 15%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $2M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Navigator’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin17%
- Gross margin55%
- Operating margin28%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $20.00
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$16.38−18.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$20.00you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$25.06+25.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 31 · 5 days −7.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.38
- Year-ago EPS$0.36
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
NVGS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Navigator in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Marine Transportation
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.