QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Homebuilding
NVR NVR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 26% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $5,888−1%
- Market Value
- $5,891price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.49
4 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $5,959
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5,564−6.6%
- Fair value est.base case$5,888−1.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$5,891−1.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$5,959you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$8,097+35.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NVR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NVR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.49
- Volatility
- 28% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.06
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 8.4% in a year: $1.8B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.2% (price / FCF 16.0×): $1.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 14.7× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 32% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales fell 10% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew only −0.6% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 14% to $436.55 in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on NVR in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Homebuilding
All fundamentals
P/E 14.7 · FCF yield 6.2% · ROE 32%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.7×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 16.0×
- FCF yield
- 6.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.76×
- Price / book
- 4.95×
- Market cap
- $16.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −9.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $384.73
- EPS growth, last FY
- −13.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Net income growth
- −25%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 12.0%
- FCF margin
- 11.0%
- Return on equity
- 32%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.2B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −13%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.8B10.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $65M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From NVR’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $5,888 · MV $5,891 · FCF value $9,776
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.6% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $371.56 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days −0.4%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales −8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.6%
- Gross margin21%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital30%
- Return on equity28%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−8%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
NVR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.