QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Homebuilding
PulteGroup PHM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 12% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $109.55−12%
- Market Value
- $121.50price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −12%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.86
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $124.74
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$109.35−12.3%
- Fair value est.base case$109.55−12.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$121.50−2.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$124.74you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$142.56+14.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PHM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PHM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.86
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 13.0× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 5.2% in a year: $1.3B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.5% (price / FCF 18.0×): $1.3B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.8×, below the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $109.55, 12% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 24% to $11.12 in FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 9% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 8 points in two fiscal years, to 17% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on PulteGroup in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Homebuilding
All fundamentals
P/E 13.0 · FCF yield 5.5% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 18.0×
- FCF yield
- 5.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.47×
- Price / book
- 1.79×
- Market cap
- $23.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $16.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −9.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $9.36
- EPS growth, last FY
- −24.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Net income growth
- −32%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 11.2%
- FCF margin
- 8.1%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.4B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −16%
- Dividend yield
- 0.83%$194M paid
- Payout ratio
- 11%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.3B5.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $56M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From PulteGroup’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $109.55 · MV $121.50 · FCF value $177.03
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.7% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.91 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days +2.9%
The business
FCF $1.3B · Sales −10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin25%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−10%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
PHM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.