QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Realty Income O
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 16% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $132.03+132%
- Market Value
- $57.67price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.08
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $56.93
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$53.35−6.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$56.93you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$57.67+1.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$67.56+18.7%
- Fair value est.base case$132.03+131.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, O’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much O moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.08
- Volatility
- 17% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.25
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $132.03, 132% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.5% (price / FCF 13.3×): $4.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 5.6% ($3.0B paid over 12 months).
GrowthSales compounded 20% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 19% to $1.17 in FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 11% over the last 12 months, from 20% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $3.0B paid vs $1.3B of net income.
Cash returnsShare count up 3.4% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 3% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 6.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Realty Income in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
All fundamentals
P/E 42.0 · FCF yield 7.5% · ROE 3%
Valuation
- P/E
- 42.0×Real Estate median 28.7×
- Price / FCF
- 13.3×
- FCF yield
- 7.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 8.79×
- Price / book
- 1.35×
- Market cap
- $53.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +19.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.37
- EPS growth, last FY
- +19.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Net income growth
- +40%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 20.9%
- FCF margin
- 66.1%
- Return on equity
- 3%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $553M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +13%
- Dividend yield
- 5.63%$3.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- 236%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +3.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $37M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Realty Income’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $132.03 · MV $57.67 · FCF value $109.70
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 19.8% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.28 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +0.1%
The business
FCF $4.2B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin70%
- Gross margin93%
- Operating margin46%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA6.0×
Next report
Nov 2
- DateMon Nov 2, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.11
- Year-ago EPS$1.08
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
O is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.