QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Simon Property Group SPG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 8% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $190.01−13%
- Market Value
- $208.77price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.19
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $217.75
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$173.35−20.4%
- Fair value est.base case$190.01−12.7%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 10$208.77−4.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$217.75you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$236.70+8.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.3%; bull = 8.5% and 8.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SPG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SPG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.19
- Volatility
- 19% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.12
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.08
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 95% to $14.17 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 15.3× vs a 28.7× median for the 46 Real Estate companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 47% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 15% to $6.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.6% (price / FCF 21.9×): $3.2B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt is 6.5× shareholders’ equity.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $190.01, 13% below the price.
Balance sheetNet debt of $27.7B, 39% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $3.32): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Simon Property Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
All fundamentals
P/E 15.3 · FCF yield 4.6% · ROE 134%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.3×Real Estate median 28.7×
- Price / FCF
- 21.9×
- FCF yield
- 4.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.8×
- Price / sales
- 10.17×
- Price / book
- 15.91×
- Market cap
- $70.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $98.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $14.17
- EPS growth, last FY
- +95.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.6B
- Net income growth
- +119%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 47.4%
- Net margin
- 66.5%
- FCF margin
- 46.4%
- Return on equity
- 134%
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.0B
- Total debt
- $28.7B
- Net cash
- −$27.7B
- Debt / equity
- 6.47×
- Interest coverage
- 3.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +2%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Simon Property Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $190.01 · MV $208.77 · FCF value $251.13
Assumes 6.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.93 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. Net debt $27.7B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 68 · 5 days +2.9%
The business
FCF $3.2B · Sales +20%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin46%
- Gross margin82%
- Operating margin47%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity120%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+20%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.4×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$3.32
- Year-ago EPS$3.22
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
SPG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.