QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
Paymentus PAY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 21% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 23% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 27%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $39.67+13%
- Market Value
- $35.61price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.71
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 21% below its 52-week high (Aug 4), but the business held up: earnings per share +10.3%, revenue +4.5%, operating margin +0.6 pts.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +10.3%, revenue +4.5%, operating margin +0.6 pts), others slipped (revenue growth rate −3.7 pts). The price is 21% below its 52-week high.
The price is 21% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −3.7 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.4B → $1.4B (+4.5%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+30.2% → +26.5% a year (−3.7 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.66 → $0.73 (+10.3%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$159M → $168M (+5.3%)held up
- Operating margin7.6% → 8.2% (+0.6 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+1.0% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −21%, sector median −3% since Aug 4about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −21%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +5% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 36.2× at the high → 27.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jun 30, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($44.60, Aug 4) the price assumed about 18%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($20.21, Jun 22) about 6%; today about 13%. The last 3 years delivered 106%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 106%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $44.60Aug 4 | $20.21Jun 22 | $35.05 |
| Implied growth | +18% | +6% | +13% |
| P/E | 67.8× | 35.3× | 48.3× |
| P/FCF | 36.2× | 18.4× | 27.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PAY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PAY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.71
- Volatility
- 63% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.14
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.05
How it ranks
Where PAY stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate13% · price below our base caseTop 37%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.7% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 46%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+27% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 18%of 1,814
- Operating margin8.2% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 38%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $39.67 · MV $35.61 · FCF value $21.91
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 34.0% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.29 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 3, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 34% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $39.67, 13% above the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 49% to $0.52 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 27% to $1.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 6.3% in FY2025 from 2.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 48.3× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 24.8% in FY2025 from 29.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count up 0.8% over 12 months, above the −1.7% median for the 310 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.7%, below the 5.5% median for the 352 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 48.3 · FCF yield 3.7% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 48.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 27.3×
- FCF yield
- 3.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.21×
- Price / book
- 7.10×
- Market cap
- $4.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +26.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +34.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.73
- EPS growth, last FY
- +48.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $95M
- Net income growth
- +59%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 25.2%
- Operating margin
- 8.2%
- Net margin
- 6.7%
- FCF margin
- 11.8%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $408M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $168M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +16%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $24M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Paymentus’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +29%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin25%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on equity15%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+29%
- Net debt / EBITDA−3.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $35.05
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$20.21−42.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$35.05you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 3$35.61+1.6%
- Fair value est.base case$39.67+13.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$44.60+27.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +7.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
PAY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Paymentus in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.