QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical RARE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 55% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
Worth knowing
- Down 59% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 18%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $15.92price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −55%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.31
52-week range 14% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $16.30Market Value $15.92
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 55% below its 52-week high (Dec 4), but the business held up: revenue +13.7%, operating margin +12.6 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (revenue +13.7%, operating margin +12.6 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped. The price is 55% below its 52-week high.
The price is 55% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 6 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$631M → $717M (+13.7%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+20.6% → +17.5% a year (−3.1 pts)about the same
- Operating margin−86.3% → −73.6% (+12.6 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−1.6% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −55%, sector median +14% since Dec 4changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −55%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +14% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for RARE: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RARE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.31
- Volatility
- 82% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
How it ranks
Where RARE stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 3 measures
- Free cash flow yield−31% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 1%of 1,690
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+18% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 29%of 2,184
- Operating margin−74% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 2%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $15.92
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −79.5% in FY2025 from −131.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 23% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 18% to $717M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$489M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityLost $586M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −74% operating margin over the last 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of −31%, below the 1.9% median for the 303 Health Care companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; debt load unclear or high.
All fundamentals
FCF yield -30.6% · Sales +18%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −30.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.23×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.6Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $717M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +17.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$5.83
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$586M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −73.6%
- Net margin
- −81.7%
- FCF margin
- −68.2%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $292M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$489M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +3.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $138M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.5B · Sales +28%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield-30.6%
- Gross margin−21%
- Operating margin−35%
- Return on invested capital−32%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+28%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $16.30
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.88−21.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 14$15.92−2.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$16.30you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$36.54+124.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days +1.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS($1.15)
- Year-ago EPS($1.81)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
RARE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.