QualityDipStocks / Telecommunications · Cable & media
Roku ROKU
Not in a dip by our rules: 3% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $143.07−8%
- Market Value
- $155.46at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.35
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $155.12
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$82.93−46.5%
- Fair value est.base case$143.07−7.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$155.12you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$155.46+0.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$160.06+3.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.9%; bull = 8.5% and 16.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ROKU’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ROKU moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.35
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.42
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.35
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −0.1% in FY2025 from −22.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 82% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 19% to $5.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 129× over.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 66.3× vs a 13.1× median for the 8 Telecommunications companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.0%, below the 11% median for the 11 Telecommunications companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 8.3×, above the 2.1× median for the 10 Telecommunications companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 1.5% over 12 months, above the −3.4% median for the 9 Telecommunications companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 2 (consensus EPS $0.55): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Roku in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Telecommunications
All fundamentals
P/E 66.3 · FCF yield 3.0% · ROE 13%
Valuation
- P/E
- 66.3×Telecommunications median 13.1×
- Price / FCF
- 33.2×
- FCF yield
- 3.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.52×
- Price / book
- 8.35×
- Market cap
- $23.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +18.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +14.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.36
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $355M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 45.5%
- Operating margin
- 5.2%
- Net margin
- 6.8%
- FCF margin
- 13.6%
- Return on equity
- 13%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.6B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 129.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $710M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +82%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $313M1.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $328M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Roku’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $143.07 · MV $155.46 · FCF value $118.68
Assumes 14.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.67 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −2.2%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +22%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin46%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+22%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.1×
Next report
Nov 2
- DateMon Nov 2, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.55
- Year-ago EPS$0.16
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ROKU fires a reversal signal
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