QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Environmental Services
Republic Services RSG
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $163.39−33%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.44
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $244.04
- Fair value est.base case$163.39−33.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$197.73−19.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$244.04at the price
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$244.04you are here
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.7%; bull = 8.5% and 8.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, RSG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RSG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.44
- Volatility
- 20% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.45
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 18% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 11%, above the 5.6% median for the 45 Utilities companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 1.8% over 12 months, below the +1.2% median for the 52 Utilities companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.4%, above the −3.1% median for the 49 Utilities companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $163.39, 33% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 33.6× vs a 21.2× median for the 55 Utilities companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 16.6×, above the 13.5× median for the 43 Utilities companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 18%, below the 24% median for the 54 Utilities companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 4.1% over the last 12 months, below the 7.7% median for the 56 Utilities companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Republic Services in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Utilities
All fundamentals
P/E 33.6 · FCF yield 3.4% · ROE 18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 33.6×3-yr-end avg 30.7× · Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- 29.2×
- FCF yield
- 3.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.6×
- Price / sales
- 3.79×
- Price / book
- 6.11×
- Market cap
- $74.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $88.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $19.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.22
- EPS growth, last FY
- +5.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.2B
- Net income growth
- +6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 49.3%
- Operating margin
- 17.5%
- Net margin
- 11.3%
- FCF margin
- 13.0%
- Return on equity
- 18%
- Return on invested capital
- 11%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $92M
- Total debt
- $14.1B
- Net cash
- −$14.0B
- Debt / equity
- 1.15×
- Interest coverage
- 5.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +1%
- Dividend yield
- 1.03%$771M paid
- Payout ratio
- 35%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.1B1.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Republic Services’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $163.39 · FCF value $215.73
Assumes 6.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.35 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 69 · 5 days +1.5%
The business
FCF $2.6B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin15%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when RSG fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on RSG or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.