QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Pipelines
Cheniere Energy LNG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $290.04−12%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.64
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $330.32
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$188.83−42.8%
- Fair value est.base case$290.04−12.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$330.32you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$330.32at the price
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LNG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LNG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.64
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.30
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 70% to $24.13 in FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 70% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 46% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 5.9% in a year: $2.9B of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 22% to $23.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 45.6% in FY2025 from 75.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 16% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 128 points in two fiscal years, to 67% in FY2025.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $290.04, 12% below the price.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Cheniere Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pipelines
All fundamentals
P/E 22.5 · FCF yield 5.5% · ROE 46%
Valuation
- P/E
- 22.5×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- 18.0×
- FCF yield
- 5.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.1×
- Price / sales
- 2.94×
- Price / book
- 10.43×
- Market cap
- $68.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $89.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $23.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +22.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −15.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $14.05
- EPS growth, last FY
- +69.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.0B
- Net income growth
- −24%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 28.1%
- Net margin
- 13.1%
- FCF margin
- 16.3%
- Return on equity
- 46%
- Return on invested capital
- 20%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.7B
- Total debt
- $22.6B
- Net cash
- −$20.9B
- Debt / equity
- 3.45×
- Interest coverage
- 6.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.8B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +70%
- Dividend yield
- 0.68%$466M paid
- Payout ratio
- 15%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.9B4.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $211M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Cheniere Energy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $290.04 · FCF value $349.62
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -15.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $18.30 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $20.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 79 · 5 days +10.6%
The business
FCF $2.8B · Sales +24%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin13%
- Gross margin32%
- Operating margin30%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity47%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+24%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
LNG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.