QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Advertising
Stagwell STGW
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 14%, top 5% of the 1145 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $23.22+116%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.74
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Nov 2), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($10.77, Nov 2) the price assumed about −10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($4.40, Feb 23) about −16%; today about −10%. The last 3 years delivered −9%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −9%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $10.77Nov 2 | $4.40Feb 23 | $10.77 |
| Implied growth | −10% | −16% | −10% |
| P/E | 279.0× | 58.0× | 279.0× |
| P/FCF | 7.3× | 5.3× | 7.3× |
| EV/Sales | 1.3× | 0.9× | 1.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, STGW’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much STGW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.74
- Volatility
- 56% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.11
How it ranks
Where STGW stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate116% · price below our base caseTop 6%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield14% · free cash flow vs market capTop 4%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 31%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7.7% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 41%of 1,814
- Operating margin4% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 22%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital4.1% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 19%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $23.22 · FCF value $35.90
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.7% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.47 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $1.3B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 13.6% (price / FCF 7.3×): $368M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $23.22, 116% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 72% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.3% in a year: $120M of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 279.0× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.3× over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.3B, 47% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 4%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 279.0 · FCF yield 13.6% · ROE 1%
Valuation
- P/E
- 279.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 7.3×
- FCF yield
- 13.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.0×
- Price / sales
- 0.87×
- Price / book
- 3.89×
- Market cap
- $2.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $10M
- Net income growth
- −51%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 36.0%
- Operating margin
- 4.0%
- Net margin
- 0.3%
- FCF margin
- 11.8%
- Return on equity
- 1%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $132M
- Total debt
- $1.4B
- Net cash
- −$1.3B
- Debt / equity
- 2.04×
- Interest coverage
- 1.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $368M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +72%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $120M4.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $72M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Stagwell’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield13.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin36%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $10.77
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$4.40−59.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$10.77you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$10.77at the price
- Fair value est.base case$23.22+115.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 78 · 5 days +24.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
STGW is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Stagwell in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.