QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Stoke Therapeutics STOK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 31% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −31%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.79
52-week range 26% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $26.48
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 31% below its 52-week high (Mar 10), but the business held up.
Some numbers held up, others slipped (revenue −86.3%, earnings per share turned to a loss, free cash flow $52M → −$216M, turned negative). The price is 31% below its 52-week high.
The price is 31% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −86.3%, earnings per share turned to a loss, free cash flow $52M → −$216M, turned negative.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 6 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$206M → $28M (−86.3%)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a losschanged
- Free cash flow, 12 months$52M → −$216M, turned negativechanged
- Shares outstanding+9.5% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −31%, sector median +17% since Mar 10changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −31%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −86% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($38.35, Mar 10) the price assumed about 21%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($22.37, Nov 10) about 11%. The last 3 years delivered 146%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 146%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $38.35Mar 10 | $22.37Nov 10 | $26.48 |
| Implied growth | +21% | +11% | n/a |
| P/E | 55.4× | 32.3× | n/a |
| P/FCF | 42.9× | 25.0× | — |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for STOK: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much STOK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.79
- Volatility
- 57% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.18
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where STOK stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 3 measures
- Free cash flow yield−13% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 3%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−86% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 1%of 2,184
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −11.2% in FY2025 from −1307.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 146% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$216M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
GrowthSales fell 86% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -4025.0× over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales growth slowed to −86% over the last 12 months, from 146% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield -12.7% · ROE -74% · Sales −86%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −12.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 60.26×
- Price / book
- 4.82×
- Market cap
- $1.7Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $28M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −86.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +145.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$3.78
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$243M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/an/m
- Net margin
- n/an/m
- FCF margin
- n/an/m: revenue near zero
- Return on equity
- −74%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $319M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -4025.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$216M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +16.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $40M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Stoke Therapeutics’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.2B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield-12.7%
- Gross margin100%
- Operating marginn/m
- Return on invested capital−449%
- Return on equity−74%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $26.48
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$22.37−15.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$26.48you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$38.35+44.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +4.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
STOK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Stoke Therapeutics in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.