QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
State Street STT
Not in a dip by our rules: 13% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $119.13−30%
- Market Value
- $168.22price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −13%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.02
4 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $169.77
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$112.84−33.5%
- Fair value est.base case$119.13−29.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 14$168.22−0.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$169.77you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$194.26+14.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 10.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.3%; bull = 8.5% and 12.3%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, STT would need a return on equity of about 15% a year; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much STT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.02
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.54
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.43
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 3.1% in a year: $1.6B of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 13% to $15.5B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.5% ($1.2B paid over 12 months, 34% of earnings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $119.13, 30% below the price.
GrowthSales grew 4.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 9.3% median for the 144 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 14% in the last fiscal year, below the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on State Street in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 13.4 · ROE 12% · Sales +13%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.4×3-yr-end avg 13.2× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 2.98×
- Price / book
- 1.61×
- Market cap
- $46.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $15.5Bnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $12.24
- EPS growth, last FY
- +14.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.4B
- Net income growth
- +25%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 22.2%
- FCF margin
- −24.1%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.8B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$3.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.53%$1.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 34%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.6B3.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From State Street’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $119.13 · MV $168.22
Financials model (residual income): book value $111.49 a share on Sep 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 10.3%, the average of 11.7% for the trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 and 8.8% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 80% of earnings (dividends 34% + net buybacks 46%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days +1.2%
The business
FCF $-3.7B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$3.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield−7.9%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when STT fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on STT or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.