QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust STWD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 32% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 11% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
Worth knowing
- Lowest price in 5 years of weekly closes
- Down 32% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 12%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $14.22price −11%
- Off 52-wk high
- −32%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.29
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 32% below its 52-week high (Dec 22), but the business held up: revenue +11.2%, revenue growth rate +22.2 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue +11.2%, revenue growth rate +22.2 pts), others slipped (earnings per share −39.8%). The price is 32% below its 52-week high.
The price is 32% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −39.8%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.8B → $2.0B (+11.2%)held up
- Revenue growth rate−10.4% → +11.8% a year (+22.2 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.02 → $0.61 (−39.8%)changed
- Shares outstanding+3.4% (more shares, each owns less)about the same
- Stock vs its sector (Real Estate)stock −32%, sector median +6% since Dec 22changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −32%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −14% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 18.3× at the high → 20.6× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 18.3×; 52-wk low: P/E 19.3×; now: P/E 20.6×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $18.61Dec 22 | $11.98Oct 19 | $12.61 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | 18.3× | 19.3× | 20.6× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for STWD: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 90% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 12% in FY2022), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much STWD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.29
- Volatility
- 20% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.02
Valuation details
MV $14.22
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 12% to $2.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 0.7×, below the 2.0× median for the 85 Real Estate companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 20.6×, below the 25.9× median for the 80 Real Estate companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 11.3% below its Market Value of $14.22, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 8.8% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 4% over the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 4.5% in the last fiscal year, below the 12% median for the 73 Real Estate companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; debt load unclear or high.
RiskReports earnings Nov 6 (consensus EPS $0.28): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 20.6 · ROE 4% · Sales +12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.6×Real Estate median 25.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.34×
- Price / book
- 0.72×
- Market cap
- $4.7Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.59
- EPS growth, last FY
- +4.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $228M
- Net income growth
- −38%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 11.4%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 4%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $368M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/adividends paid in the last 12 months were over 3x profit, likely a one-off (e.g. a payment to a former parent at a spin-off)
- Payout ratio
- n/an/m
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +8.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
Sales +13%
- Gross margin86%
- Operating margin−6%
- Return on invested capital0%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $12.61
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.98−5.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$12.61you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$14.22+12.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$18.61+47.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 43 · 5 days +0.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 6
- DateFri Nov 6, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.28
- Year-ago EPS$0.36
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
STWD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.