QualityDipStocks / Finance · Commercial Banks
Toronto Dominion Bank TD
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $72.74−42%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −2%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.77
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $124.50
- Fair value est.base case$72.74−41.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$80.43−35.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$124.50you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$127.22+2.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 12.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.5%; bull = 8.5% and 14.5%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TD would need a return on equity of about 19% a year; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.77
- Volatility
- 18% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.54
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.42
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 18% to $48.6B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 145% in the last fiscal year, above the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.6% ($5.5B paid over 12 months, 37% of earnings).
ProfitabilityNet margin of 30%, above the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $72.74, 42% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 14.3×, above the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Toronto Dominion Bank in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Commercial Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 14.3 · Sales +18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.3×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 4.33×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $210Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $48.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +18.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.56
- EPS growth, last FY
- +144.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $14.7B
- Net income growth
- +132%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 30.3%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.61%$5.5B paid
- Payout ratio
- 37%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Oct 31, 2025. From Toronto Dominion Bank’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $72.74
Financials model (residual income): book value $53.89 a share on Jul 31, 2026, converted from CAD at 0.7168, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 12.5%, the average of 12.4% for the trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026 and 12.7% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 50% of earnings (dividends 50%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 6-K filed Aug 27, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 59 · 5 days −0.1%
The business
FCF $5.0B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$5.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.4%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when TD fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on TD or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.