QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Broadcasting
Tencent Music Entertainment Group TME
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 62% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $21.11+137%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −62%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.80
3 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 8.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 6.9%; bull = 8.5% and 10.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TME’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TME moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.80
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
Valuation details
DCF $21.11 · FCF value $113.60
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 8.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 8.9% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.96 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CNY at 0.1499, 2 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Apr 17, 2026. Capex: purchases of property, plant and equipment (from the filing).
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 51.0%: $7.1B of free cash in the last 12 months on a $14B market cap.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $21.11, 137% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Balance sheetMore cash than debt (net debt / EBITDA below zero).
Top bearish points 2 of 5
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
RiskReports earnings Nov 17 (consensus EPS $0.20): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
from SEC filings
No fundamentals for Tencent Music Entertainment Group: Latest SEC XBRL statements end 2024-12-31, too old to use. We show nothing rather than guess.
The business
FCF $7.1B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$7.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield51.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin21%
- Gross margin44%
- Operating margin29%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $8.91
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$7.74−13.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$8.91you are here
- Fair value est.base case$21.11+136.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$23.15+159.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +5.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 17
- DateTue Nov 17, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.20
- Year-ago EPS$0.20
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
TME is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Tencent Music Entertainment Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.