QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Forest Products
Trex Company TREX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 1% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 10% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $32.20−36%
- Market Value
- $45.91price +10%
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.41
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 1% below its 52-week high (Oct 30), but the business held up: shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 1% below its 52-week high.
The price is 1% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($51.14, Oct 30) the price assumed about 11%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($30.13, Nov 20) about 45%; today about 11%. The last 3 years delivered 50%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 50%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $51.14Oct 30 | $30.13Nov 20 | $50.54 |
| Implied growth | +11% | +45% | +11% |
| P/E | 29.5× | 16.3× | 29.2× |
| P/FCF | 25.2× | 140.1× | 24.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TREX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TREX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.41
- Volatility
- 50% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.36
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.28
How it ranks
Where TREX stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate36% · price above our base caseLowest 22%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 50%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 36%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 38%of 1,814
- Operating margin20% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 28%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $32.20 · MV $45.91 · FCF value $17.34
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.03 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 4.6% in a year: $204M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 18% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $32.20, 36% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 22.0% in FY2025 from 25.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 10 points in two fiscal years, to 18% in FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 19% to $1.78 in FY2025.
ValuationTrades 10.1% above its Market Value of $45.91, the average price paid since the Sep 2 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 29.2 · FCF yield 4.0% · ROE 18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 29.2×Basic Materials median 17.3×
- Price / FCF
- 24.9×
- FCF yield
- 4.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.28×
- Price / book
- 5.12×
- Market cap
- $5.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.70
- EPS growth, last FY
- −19.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $177M
- Net income growth
- −11%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 38.2%
- Operating margin
- 20.2%
- Net margin
- 14.7%
- FCF margin
- 17.2%
- Return on equity
- 18%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $6M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $208M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $204M3.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $9M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Trex Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $50.54
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$30.13−40.4%
- Fair value est.base case$32.20−36.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 2$45.91−9.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$50.54you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$51.14+1.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 65 · 5 days +2.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.49
- Year-ago EPS$0.51
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
TREX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Trex Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
StifelAnalyst rating changeAnalyst
Stifel initiates coverage of Trex Bio at Buy, sets price target at $39TradingView ·
WedbushAnalyst rating changeAnalyst
Wedbush initiates coverage of Trex Bio at Outperform, sets price target at $30TradingView ·
Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET. Matched by name against a maintained list plus the company’s own executives. Information only, not advice.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Forest Products
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.