QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Trulieve Cannabis TRLV
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 15% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $15.97+44%
- Market Value
- $11.16price 0%
- Off 52-wk high
- −15%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.84
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 15% below its 52-week high (Jun 8), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (operating margin −36.8 pts, free cash flow −17.9%, revenue −2.7%). The price is 15% below its 52-week high.
The price is 15% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: operating margin −36.8 pts, free cash flow −17.9%, revenue −2.7%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.2B → $1.1B (−2.7%)changed
- Revenue growth rate−1.4% → −3.9% a year (−2.5 pts)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$237M → $194M (−17.9%)changed
- Operating margin12.5% → −24.3% (−36.8 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding−2.6% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −15%, sector median +17% since Jun 8changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −15%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −10% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 10.9× at the high → 11.0× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($13.00, Jun 8) the price assumed about −4%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($4.76, Nov 19) about −15%; today about −3%. The last 3 years delivered −1%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −1%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $13.00Jun 8 | $4.76Nov 19 | $11.10 |
| Implied growth | −4% | −15% | −3% |
| P/FCF | 10.9× | 5.6× | 11.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TRLV’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TRLV moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 8.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.84
- Volatility
- 110% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.07
How it ranks
Where TRLV stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate44% · price below our base caseTop 23%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield9.1% · free cash flow vs market capTop 13%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−3.9% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 6%of 1,814
- Operating margin−24% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 3%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $15.97 · MV $11.16 · FCF value $30.39
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -1.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.01 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. Net cash $130M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $15.97, 44% above the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 12.1% in FY2025 from −19.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.1% (price / FCF 11.0×): $194M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 118% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 60.2% in FY2025 from 52.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -4.9× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $473M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −24% operating margin over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew only −1.0% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 9.1% · Sales −4%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 11.0×
- FCF yield
- 9.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.88×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $2.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −3.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −1.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$473M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 59.5%
- Operating margin
- −24.3%
- Net margin
- −41.6%
- FCF margin
- 17.1%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -4.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $194M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +118%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $21M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From Trulieve Cannabis’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales −10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin60%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity−48%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−10%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $11.10
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$4.76−57.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$11.10you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 11$11.16+0.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$13.00+17.1%
- Fair value est.base case$15.97+43.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +2.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.09
- Year-ago EPSN/A
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
TRLV is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Trulieve Cannabis in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.