QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Meat/Poultry/Fish
Tyson Foods TSN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 17% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $51.82−9%
- Market Value
- $53.32price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −17%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.08
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $57.04
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$50.47−11.5%
- Fair value est.base case$51.82−9.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 24$53.32−6.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$57.04you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$68.75+20.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TSN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TSN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.08
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.14
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.7% (price / FCF 17.4×): $1.2B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.5% ($702M paid over 12 months).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 2.0% in FY2025 from −0.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 9.9×, below the 13.5× median for the 26 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 41% to $1.33 in FY2025.
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $702M paid vs $574M of net income.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 4%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
ValuationTrades 7.0% above its Market Value of $53.32, the average price paid since the Aug 24 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Tyson Foods in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Staples
All fundamentals
P/E 35.3 · FCF yield 5.7% · ROE 3%
Valuation
- P/E
- 35.3×Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 17.4×
- FCF yield
- 5.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.9×
- Price / sales
- 0.36×
- Price / book
- 1.12×
- Market cap
- $20.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $26.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $55.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.62
- EPS growth, last FY
- −40.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $574M
- Net income growth
- −27%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 6.1%
- Operating margin
- 2.3%
- Net margin
- 1.0%
- FCF margin
- 2.1%
- Return on equity
- 3%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $740M
- Total debt
- $6.6B
- Net cash
- −$5.8B
- Debt / equity
- 0.36×
- Interest coverage
- 3.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −11%
- Dividend yield
- 3.47%$702M paid
- Payout ratio
- 122%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Tyson Foods’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $51.82 · MV $53.32 · FCF value $85.70
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.7% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.27 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 3, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 65 · 5 days +0.6%
The business
FCF $1.2B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin7%
- Operating margin3%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.6×
Next report
Nov 16
- DateMon Nov 16, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.65
- Year-ago EPS$1.15
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TSN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.