QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software & internet services
The Trade Desk TTD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 76% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 8% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $13.38price −8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −76%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.86
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $12.29
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.92−3.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$12.29you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$13.38+8.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$50.28+309.1%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for TTD: the model gives 361% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TTD’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TTD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 4.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.86
- Volatility
- 57% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.13
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 14.9% (price / FCF 6.7×): $863M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 20.3% in FY2025 from 10.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 14.2× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthSales compounded 22% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationTrades 8.1% below its Market Value of $13.38, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 12% over the last 12 months, from 22% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
RiskReports earnings Nov 9 (consensus EPS $0.08): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on The Trade Desk in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software & internet services
All fundamentals
P/E 14.2 · FCF yield 14.9% · ROE 15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.2×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 6.7×
- FCF yield
- 14.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.93×
- Price / book
- 2.24×
- Market cap
- $5.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.84
- EPS growth, last FY
- +15.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $407M
- Net income growth
- −2%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 76.9%
- Operating margin
- 19.6%
- Net margin
- 13.6%
- FCF margin
- 28.9%
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.5B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 277.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $863M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +14%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $975M16.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $452M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From The Trade Desk’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $13.38 · FCF value $28.74
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days −5.5%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin77%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital26%
- Return on equity15%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.5×
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.08
- Year-ago EPS$0.23
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TTD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.