QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Natural Gas Distribution
UGI UGI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 5% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $13.80−64%
- Market Value
- $38.81at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.02
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $38.67
- Fair value est.base case$13.80−64.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$32.32−16.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$38.67you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$38.81+0.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$40.63+5.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UGI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 22% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UGI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.02
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.11
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 147% to $3.09 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 15.2% in FY2025 from −16.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 12.4× vs a 21.2× median for the 55 Utilities companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.9% ($322M paid over 12 months, 48% of earnings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 8.3×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $13.80, 64% below the price.
Balance sheetNet debt of $6.2B, 75% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 58% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.7× over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 3.8× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on UGI in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Natural Gas Distribution
All fundamentals
P/E 12.4 · FCF yield 2.3% · ROE 13%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.4×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- 44.4×
- FCF yield
- 2.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.3×
- Price / sales
- 1.14×
- Price / book
- 1.59×
- Market cap
- $8.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $14.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −10.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.01
- EPS growth, last FY
- +147.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $671M
- Net income growth
- +61%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 16.2%
- Net margin
- 9.2%
- FCF margin
- 2.6%
- Return on equity
- 13%
- Return on invested capital
- 9%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $476M
- Total debt
- $6.7B
- Net cash
- −$6.2B
- Debt / equity
- 1.29×
- Interest coverage
- 2.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $187M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −58%
- Dividend yield
- 3.88%$322M paid
- Payout ratio
- 48%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $39M0.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From UGI’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $13.80 · MV $38.81
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -10.3% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.87 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days +0.5%
The business
FCF $-0.2B · Sales −4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield−2.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin−3%
- Gross margin51%
- Operating margin−2%
- Return on invested capital−1%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−4%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.8×
Next report
Nov 18
- DateWed Nov 18, after the close
- Consensus EPS($0.32)
- Year-ago EPS($0.23)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
UGI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.