QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
UMB Financial UMBF
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 12% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $153.90+14%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −12%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.63
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $134.47
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$103.99−22.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$134.47you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$152.04+13.1%
- Fair value est.base case$153.90+14.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 12.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.2%; bull = 8.5% and 14.2%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UMBF would need a return on equity of about 11% a year; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UMBF moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.63
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $153.90, 14% above the price.
GrowthSales grew 27% to $3.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 22% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 10.1× vs a 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 34%, above the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 3.3% in the last fiscal year, below the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.2% over 12 months, above the −2.5% median for the 117 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on UMB Financial in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 10.1 · ROE 13% · Sales +27%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.1×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 3.39×
- Price / book
- 1.30×
- Market cap
- $10.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.0Bnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +27.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +21.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $13.22
- EPS growth, last FY
- +3.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.0B
- Net income growth
- +70%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 33.5%
- FCF margin
- 37.9%
- Return on equity
- 13%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.6B
- Total debt
- $333M
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +42%
- Dividend yield
- 1.59%$163M paid
- Payout ratio
- 16%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $38M0.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $41M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From UMB Financial’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $153.90
Financials model (residual income): book value $109.96 a share on Sep 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 12.2%, the average of 12.5% for the trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 and 11.8% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 14% of earnings (dividends 14%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days −0.8%
The business
Sales +13%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
UMBF is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.