QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
Cullen/Frost Bankers CFR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $114.69−27%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.24
4 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $157.60
- Fair value est.base case$114.69−27.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$119.85−24.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$157.60you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$170.08+7.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 12.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.7%; bull = 8.5% and 14.7%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CFR would need a return on equity of about 17% a year; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CFR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.24
- Volatility
- 19% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.03
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 3.1% in a year: $264M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 16% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.6% ($258M paid over 12 months, 38% of earnings).
ProfitabilityNet margin of 29%, above the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $114.69, 27% below the price.
GrowthSales grew 6.6% over the last 12 months, below the 11% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.5×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 12% in the last fiscal year, below the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Cullen/Frost Bankers in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 14.4 · ROE 16% · Sales +7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.4×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 4.20×
- Price / book
- 2.47×
- Market cap
- $9.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.3Bnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.75
- EPS growth, last FY
- +11.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $683M
- Net income growth
- +8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 29.2%
- FCF margin
- 24.8%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $7.1B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $578M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/an/m: free cash flow a year ago near zero
- Dividend yield
- 2.63%$258M paid
- Payout ratio
- 38%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $264M2.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $28M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Cullen/Frost Bankers’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $114.69
Financials model (residual income): book value $87.37 a share on Sep 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 12.7%, the average of 12.8% for the trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 and 12.6% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 72% of earnings (dividends 38% + net buybacks 35%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +0.4%
The business
Sales +6%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CFR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.