QualityDipStocks / Finance · Consumer finance
Upstart Holdings Common stock UPST
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 58% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 7% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its share count is unclear.
Worth knowing
- Down 59% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 39%
- Lowest close since Nov 2023
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $22.97price −7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −58%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.91
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 58% below its 52-week high (Jan 5), but the business held up: revenue +38.6%, earnings per share +125.1%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (revenue +38.6%, earnings per share +125.1%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (revenue growth rate −34.7 pts). The price is 58% below its 52-week high.
The price is 58% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −34.7 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$967M → $1.3B (+38.6%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+73.3% → +38.6% a year (−34.7 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.29 → $0.66 (+125.1%)held up
- Shares outstanding−10.2% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −58%, sector median +6% since Jan 5changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −58%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +82% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 172.7× at the high → 32.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 172.7×; 52-wk low: P/E 38.8×; now: P/E 32.3×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $50.70Jan 5 | $21.31Nov 2 | $21.31 |
| P/E | 172.7× | 38.8× | 32.3× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for UPST: SEC share count doesn't match the listed shares (share class / ADR ratio unclear). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UPST moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.91
- Volatility
- 65% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.57
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.50
Valuation details
MV $22.97
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
GrowthSales grew 39% to $1.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 7.2% below its Market Value of $22.97, the average price paid since the Oct 20 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 14.3% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationP/E of 32.3× vs a 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 8% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.91 vs the S&P 500 and 65% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 32.3 · ROE 8% · Sales +39%
Valuation
- P/E
- 32.3×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Price / sales
- 1.57×
- Price / book
- 2.37×
- Market cap
- $2.1Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +38.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.61
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $65M
- Net income growth
- +102%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Operating margin
- 4.6%
- Net margin
- 4.9%
- FCF margin
- −14.0%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $461M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a lender
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$187M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +14.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $152M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Upstart Holdings Common stock’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.2B · Sales +42%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield−9.0%
- Return on equity8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+42%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $21.31
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$21.31at the price
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$21.31you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 20$22.97+7.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$50.70+137.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 36 · 5 days −7.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.23
- Year-ago EPS$0.20
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
UPST is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Upstart Holdings Common stock in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer finance
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.