QualityDipStocks / Technology · IT services
Upwork UPWK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 56% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 12% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Net cash = 24% of its market cap
- FCF yield 15%, top 4% of the 1322 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $8.67price +12%
- Off 52-wk high
- −56%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.82
52-week range 13% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $9.72Market Value $8.67
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 56% below its 52-week high (Jan 23), but the business held up: operating margin +1.4 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +1.6% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (operating margin +1.4 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +1.6% of market cap since the high), others slipped (earnings per share −54.0%, revenue growth rate −3.7 pts, free cash flow −11.4%). The price is 56% below its 52-week high.
The price is 56% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −54.0%, revenue growth rate −3.7 pts, free cash flow −11.4%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$781M → $771M (−1.2%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+2.5% → −1.2% a year (−3.7 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.77 → $0.81 (−54.0%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$216M → $192M (−11.4%)changed
- Operating margin14.7% → 16.0% (+1.4 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−8.2% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+1.6% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Technology)stock −56%, sector median +6% since Jan 23changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −56%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −11% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 14.3× at the high → 6.5× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($22.11, Jan 23) the price assumed about 1%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($7.84, Jun 22) about −18%; today about −13%. The last 3 years delivered 187%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 187%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $22.11Jan 23 | $7.84Jun 22 | $9.72 |
| Implied growth | +1% | −18% | −13% |
| P/E | 12.5× | 9.7× | 12.0× |
| P/FCF | 14.3× | 4.6× | 6.5× |
| EV/Sales | 3.6× | 1.1× | 1.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for UPWK: the model gives 230% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UPWK’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UPWK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 4.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.82
- Volatility
- 60% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.06
How it ranks
Where UPWK stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield15% · free cash flow vs market capTop 4%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield12% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 4%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−1.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 11%of 2,184
- Operating margin16% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 33%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital26% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 13%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $8.67 · FCF value $32.40
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 15.4% (price / FCF 6.5×): $192M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 16.4% in FY2025 from −1.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 12.0× vs a 33.2× median for the 254 Technology companies we cover.
Balance sheetNet cash of $304M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
Cash returnsShare count down 8.2% in a year: $144M of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 45% to $0.84 in FY2025.
GrowthSales growth slowed to −1% over the last 12 months, from 8% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
GrowthSales grew 8.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 10% median for the 333 Technology companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
ValuationTrades 12.1% above its Market Value of $8.67, the average price paid since the Aug 10 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 12.0 · FCF yield 15.4% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.0×Technology median 33.2×
- Price / FCF
- 6.5×
- FCF yield
- 15.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.9×
- Price / sales
- 1.62×
- Price / book
- 1.91×
- Market cap
- $1.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $942M
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $771M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.81
- EPS growth, last FY
- −44.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $104M
- Net income growth
- −58%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 76.9%
- Operating margin
- 16.0%
- Net margin
- 13.5%
- FCF margin
- 24.8%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- 26%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $304M
- Total debt
- $0
- Net cash
- $304M
- Debt / equity
- 0.00×
- Interest coverage
- n/ano debt
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $192M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −11%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $144M11.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $56M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Upwork’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales −2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield15.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin77%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital37%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−2%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $9.72
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$7.84−19.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 10$8.67−10.8%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$9.72you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$22.11+127.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +2.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
UPWK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Upwork in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in IT services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.