QualityDipStocks / Technology · IT services
Workday WDAY
Not in a dip by our rules: 18% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $356.23+80%
- Market Value
- $201.67price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −18%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.27
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $197.82
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$112.50−43.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$197.82you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 23$201.67+1.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$239.92+21.3%
- Fair value est.base case$356.23+80.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WDAY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WDAY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 4.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.27
- Volatility
- 54% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.04
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $356.23, 80% above the price.
Cash returnsShare count down 8.8% in a year: $5.2B of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 33% to $2.59 in FY2026.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.8% (price / FCF 17.1×): $2.8B of free cash in the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 8 points in two fiscal years, to 9% in FY2026.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 36.8×, above the 20.8× median for the 74 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 38.9×, above the 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Workday in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in IT services
All fundamentals
P/E 38.9 · FCF yield 5.8% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 38.9×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 17.1×
- FCF yield
- 5.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 36.8×
- Price / sales
- 4.80×
- Price / book
- 7.54×
- Market cap
- $48.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $48.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $10.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +15.4%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.91
- EPS growth, last FY
- +32.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Net income growth
- +115%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 10.7%
- Net margin
- 12.3%
- FCF margin
- 28.0%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- 17%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.4B
- Total debt
- $3.0B
- Net cash
- $414M
- Debt / equity
- 0.46×
- Interest coverage
- 9.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.8B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +19%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $5.2B10.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.6B
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Workday’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $356.23 · MV $201.67 · FCF value $298.20
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 15.4% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.55 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 27, 2026. Net cash $414M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days −5.8%
The business
FCF $2.8B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin28%
- Gross margin76%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when WDAY fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on WDAY or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.