QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Defense & government services
Willdan Group WLDN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 47% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 47% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 18%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $124.69+73%
- Market Value
- $73.99price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −47%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.66
52-week range 8% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $72.02Fair value est. $124.69Market Value $73.99
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 47% below its 52-week high (Jan 27), but the business held up: revenue +13.8%, revenue growth rate +5.2 pts, earnings per share +55.3%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +13.8%, revenue growth rate +5.2 pts, earnings per share +55.3%), others slipped. The price is 47% below its 52-week high.
The price is 47% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$652M → $742M (+13.8%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+12.9% → +18.1% a year (+5.2 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.73 → $4.23 (+55.3%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$65M → $62M (−4.3%)about the same
- Operating margin6.8% → 7.1% (+0.2 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+1.3% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−1.5% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −47%, sector median +5% since Jan 27changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −47%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +14% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 31.6× at the high → 17.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Oct 3, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jul 3, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($134.94, Jan 27) the price assumed about 15%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($66.91, Apr 27) about 1%; today about 5%. The last 3 years delivered 17%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 17%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $134.94Jan 27 | $66.91Apr 27 | $72.02 |
| Implied growth | +15% | +1% | +5% |
| P/E | 49.5× | 19.4× | 17.0× |
| P/FCF | 31.6× | 14.4× | 17.8× |
| EV/Sales | 3.2× | 1.5× | 1.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, WLDN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much WLDN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.66
- Volatility
- 59% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.36
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.35
How it ranks
Where WLDN stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate73% · price below our base caseTop 16%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield5.6% · free cash flow vs market capTop 35%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+18% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 28%of 2,184
- Operating margin7.1% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 37%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital14% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 34%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $124.69 · MV $73.99 · FCF value $81.84
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 16.7% a year FY22–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.04 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. Net debt $32M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $124.69, 73% above the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 121% to $3.49 in FY2026.
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2026.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.6% (price / FCF 17.8×): $62M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 18% to $742M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 3.4% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 15.6×, above the 11.9× median for the 281 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.2×, above the 3.0× median for the 413 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $0.83): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.66 vs the S&P 500 and 59% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 17.0 · FCF yield 5.6% · ROE 21%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 17.8×
- FCF yield
- 5.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.6×
- Price / sales
- 1.50×
- Price / book
- 3.17×
- Market cap
- $1.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $742M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +18.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +16.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.26
- EPS growth, last FY
- +120.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $65M
- Net income growth
- +86%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 37.8%
- Operating margin
- 7.1%
- Net margin
- 8.8%
- FCF margin
- 8.4%
- Return on equity
- 21%
- Return on invested capital
- 14%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $35M
- Total debt
- $67M
- Net cash
- −$32M
- Debt / equity
- 0.19×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $62M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −3%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +3.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $15M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 3, 2026. From Willdan Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +33%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity21%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+33%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $72.02
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$66.91−7.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$72.02you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 23$73.99+2.7%
- Fair value est.base case$124.69+73.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$134.94+87.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days +0.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.83
- Year-ago EPS$1.03
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
WLDN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Willdan Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Defense & government services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.