QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Transportation Services
XPO XPO
Not in a dip by our rules: 17% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $88.23−53%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −17%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.14
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $189.57
- Fair value est.base case$88.23−53.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$125.64−33.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$189.57you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$228.37+20.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, XPO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much XPO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.14
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.35
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 183% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 27% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 8.0% in FY2025 from 5.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 9% to $8.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $88.23, 53% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 44.5× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 18% to $2.64 in FY2025.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.9%, below the 4.9% median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 18.6×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on XPO in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Transportation Services
All fundamentals
P/E 44.5 · FCF yield 2.9% · ROE 27%
Valuation
- P/E
- 44.5×3-yr-end avg 48.9× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 34.0×
- FCF yield
- 2.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.6×
- Price / sales
- 2.53×
- Price / book
- 11.34×
- Market cap
- $22.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $25.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.24
- EPS growth, last FY
- −18.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $503M
- Net income growth
- +52%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 9.9%
- Net margin
- 5.7%
- FCF margin
- 7.4%
- Return on equity
- 27%
- Return on invested capital
- 14%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $260M
- Total debt
- $3.0B
- Net cash
- −$2.7B
- Debt / equity
- 1.52×
- Interest coverage
- 4.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $657M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +183%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $318M1.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $76M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From XPO’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $88.23 · FCF value $146.16
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.9% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.57 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $2.7B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +3.5%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin13%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity27%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when XPO fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on XPO or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.