QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Transportation Services
Expedia Group EXPE
On dip watch: 16% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $767.30+168%
- Market Value
- $288.54price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.88
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $285.93
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$188.51−34.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$285.93you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$288.54+0.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$339.13+18.6%
- Fair value est.base case$767.30+168.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 8.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 6.1%; bull = 8.5% and 10.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, EXPE’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much EXPE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 4.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.88
- Volatility
- 51% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.09
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 12.7% (price / FCF 7.9×): $4.5B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 17.2× is 34% below its own average of 26.1× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $767.30, 168% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 123% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count down 7.7% in a year: $1.9B of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetDebt is 4.5× shareholders’ equity.
ValuationPrice / book of 29.0×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.6%, below the 1.7% median for the 114 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $8.09): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Expedia Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Transportation Services
All fundamentals
P/E 17.2 · FCF yield 12.7% · ROE 199%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.2×3-yr-end avg 26.1× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 7.9×
- FCF yield
- 12.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.8×
- Price / sales
- 2.23×
- Price / book
- 28.98×
- Market cap
- $35.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $33.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $15.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $15.90
- EPS growth, last FY
- +9.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Net income growth
- +83%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 16.0%
- Net margin
- 13.0%
- FCF margin
- 28.4%
- Return on equity
- 199%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $7.1B
- Total debt
- $5.5B
- Net cash
- $1.7B
- Debt / equity
- 4.52×
- Interest coverage
- 7.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +123%
- Dividend yield
- 0.61%$214M paid
- Payout ratio
- 11%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.9B5.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $412M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Expedia Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $767.30 · MV $288.54 · FCF value $983.99
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 8.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 8.1% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $36.38 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net cash $1.7B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days −1.1%
The business
FCF $4.5B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield13.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin28%
- Gross margin90%
- Operating margin17%
- Return on invested capital32%
- Return on equity194%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.3×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$8.09
- Year-ago EPS$7.03
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when EXPE fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on EXPE or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.