QualityDipJC
Jim CramerOct 19 · TV
bearish“It's come down a lot, but in the end AppLovin is in the crosshairs of Alphabet and I don't want to be there. ... I'm just going to have to say no.”
Stocks / Technology · Software & internet services
APP
AppLovin APP
$228.50−10.36% dayFri Oct 30 close
Deep dip with a setup armed: a close above $242.56 triggers it. 69% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 24% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $360.88+58%
- Market Value
- $301.95price −24%
- Off 52-wk high
- −69%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.26
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Fair value est.Market ValueTriggerStopDrag across the chart to see any day
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $228.50
- Stopreference, not an order$225.19−1.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$228.50you are here
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$228.50at the price
- Triggerclose above fires the setup$242.56+6.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$301.95+32.1%
- Fair value est.base case$360.88+57.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$733.60+221.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
$360.88+58% vs price
Price $228.50
Bear$276.97
Base$360.88
Bull$483.47
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, APP’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much APP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
High
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.26
- Volatility
- 72% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.40
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.41
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $360.88, 58% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 17.5× is 71% below its own average of 60.4× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
GrowthSales grew 61% to $6.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 24.3% below its Market Value of $301.95, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 69% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.1×, above the 0.4× median for the 88 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 24.3×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.26 vs the S&P 500 and 72% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $3.94): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
VoicesJim Cramer (Oct 19): ““It's come down a lot, but in the end AppLovin is in the crosshairs of Alphabet and I don't want to be there. ... I'm just going to have…” CNBC Mad Money (lightning round)
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on AppLovin in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software & internet services
CompanyPrice1 yearvs fair valueP/EMkt cap
NBISNebius Group$154.14−10.4%+24%n/an/a$47BBSPBending Spoons S.p.A.$45.52−2.7%—n/an/a$32BZMZoom Communications$95.50−2.2%+13%+10%8.8×$28BBIDUBaidu ADS$76.40−2.9%−37%n/a38.2×$27BTEMTempus AI$72.22−7.2%−16%n/an/a$14BDOCNDigitalOcean$89.65−10.3%+136%−47%48.2×$12BAll fundamentals
P/E 17.5 · Sales +61%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.5×3-yr-end avg 60.4× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.3×
- Price / sales
- 11.28×
- Price / book
- 24.35×
- Market cap
- $77.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $77.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +60.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +24.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $13.01
- EPS growth, last FY
- +115.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.4B
- Net income growth
- +82%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 88.5%
- Operating margin
- 77.4%
- Net margin
- 64.6%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- 123%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.1B
- Total debt
- $3.5B
- Net cash
- −$462M
- Debt / equity
- 1.11×
- Interest coverage
- 26.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.5B3.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $282M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From AppLovin’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $360.88 · MV $301.95 · FCF value $301.36
Market ValueAverage paid since the Aug 5 filing, 61 trading days
$301.95price −24%
Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted
$360.8858% upside
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 24.8% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.70 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026. Capex: intangibles plus 'other investing' (no separate PP&E line).
FCF valuePrice at a 4% yield on trailing free cash flow ($4.5B)
$301.36price −24%
Setup & signals
Armed · trigger $242.56
TriggerFires on a close above this
$242.56+6.2% from here
StopUnder the Oct 30 panic low
$225.19−1.4% from here
Risk if it triggersTrigger to stop
−7.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 25 · 5 days −12.2%
$228.50nowMV
52-wk low $228.50high $733.60
Off 52-wk high−68.9%
5 days−12.2%
vs 50-day avg−22.3%
vs 200-day avg−45.0%
RSI (14)25 oversold
Market cap$85B
The business
FCF $4.5B · Sales +53%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin66%
- Gross margin88%
- Operating margin77%
- Return on invested capital63%
- Return on equity214%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+53%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.1×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$3.94
- Year-ago EPS$2.45
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Investor buzz
2 from investors
Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz
CC
Chase ColemanAug 14 · 13F filing
bearish13F: sold entire stake, Q2 2026 (had 1,000,000 shares). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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