QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
AAON AAON
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 54% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 15% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: there isn’t enough data.
Worth knowing
- Down 55% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 54%
- Deepest drop from a 52-week high in over 3 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $79.72price −15%
- Off 52-wk high
- −54%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.23
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 54% below its 52-week high (Jun 3), but the business held up: revenue +19.5%, revenue growth rate +25.3 pts, earnings per share +36.2%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +19.5%, revenue growth rate +25.3 pts, earnings per share +36.2%), others slipped. The price is 54% below its 52-week high.
The price is 54% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.6B → $1.9B (+19.5%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+28.3% → +53.5% a year (+25.3 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.42 → $1.93 (+36.2%)held up
- Operating margin10.4% → 11.0% (+0.6 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−1.0% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −54%, sector median −5% since Jun 3changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −54%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +28% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 104.4× at the high → 35.2× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 104.4×; 52-wk low: P/E 35.4×; now: P/E 35.2×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $148.25Jun 3 | $67.40Oct 30 | $67.99 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | 104.4× | 35.4× | 35.2× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for AAON: Capital spending isn't tagged for the latest period in SEC XBRL data. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AAON moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.23
- Volatility
- 62% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.46
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.50
How it ranks
Where AAON stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 26%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+54% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 7%of 1,814
- Operating margin11% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 46%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $79.72
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 54% to $1.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 18% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 17% over the last 12 months.
ValuationTrades 14.7% below its Market Value of $79.72, the average price paid since the Aug 10 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 10.1% in FY2025 from 19.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 26.7% in FY2025 from 34.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 36% to $1.29 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 12 points in two fiscal years, to 12% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow.
All fundamentals
P/E 35.2 · ROE 17% · Sales +54%
Valuation
- P/E
- 35.2×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.90×
- Price / book
- 5.54×
- Market cap
- $5.6Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +53.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.90
- EPS growth, last FY
- −36.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $159M
- Net income growth
- +30%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 25.6%
- Operating margin
- 11.0%
- Net margin
- 8.2%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $13,000
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0.58%$33M paid
- Payout ratio
- 21%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $20M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From AAON’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.2B · Sales +101%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield−3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin−11%
- Gross margin26%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+101%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $67.99
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$67.40−0.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$67.99you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 10$79.72+17.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$148.25+118.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 36 · 5 days −4.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.56
- Year-ago EPS$0.37
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
AAON is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on AAON in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.