Stocks / Consumer Discretionary · Diversified Commercial Services

ABM

ABM Industries ABM

Consumer Discretionary · Diversified Commercial Services

$54.00+0.97% dayMon Nov 2 close

Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.

Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.

Worth knowing

Share count down 5% in 2 years

From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these

Outside our quality screen

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Fair value est.: $87.61+62%
Market Value: $50.41price +7%
Off 52-wk high: at the high
Risk vs market: Lowbeta 0.13

5 bullish · 5 bearish See why

Covered for reference — doesn’t pass our quality screen (market cap $3.2B, under our $20B floor; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.9× EBITDA (limit 3×)). We show its price, Market Value and DCF, but it never appears in Dips, Top Picks or reversal signals. The screen

Repriced or dip?

Near its high

Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.

Data-based read, not advice.

Priced in

How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).

At the high ($54.04, Oct 26) the price assumed about −5%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($37.39, Mar 20) about −11%; today about −5%. The last 3 years delivered 4%/yr (revenue).

52-wk high$54.04−5%
52-wk low$37.39−11%
Now$54.00−5%

Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 4%/yr (revenue)

	High	Low	Now
Price	$54.04Oct 26	$37.39Mar 20	$54.00
Implied growth	−5%	−11%	−5%
P/E	19.3×	14.4×	19.2×
P/FCF	10.3×	6.9×	10.3×
EV/Sales	0.5×	0.4×	0.5×

What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.

How it’s computed

Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.

Valuation

What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.

Fair value estimate

How the range is computed

Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.9%; bull = 8.5% and 5.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.

$87.61+62% vs price

Price $54.00

Bear$67.91

Base$87.61

Bull$116.36

Price is below even the bear case.

What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ABM’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.

Risk vs market

How risk vs market is measured

One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ABM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.

Low

Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).

Beta vs S&P 500: 0.13
Volatility: 28% vs 13% SPY
Correlation SPY: 0.06
Correlation QQQ: −0.09

How it ranks

Where ABM stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.

Top quarter on 3 of 6 measures

Discount to fair value estimate62% · price below our base case
Top 18%of 1,314
Free cash flow yield9.8% · free cash flow vs market cap
Top 12%of 1,391
Dividends + buybacks yield7.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market cap
Top 13%of 1,836
Revenue growth, last 12 months+6% · vs the 12 months before
Lowest 33%of 1,814
Operating margin3.5% · of sales kept as operating profit
Lowest 21%of 1,288
Return on invested capital7.1% · profit per dollar of capital
Lowest 35%of 838

From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.

Valuation details

DCF $87.61 · MV $50.41 · FCF value $118.13

How

Market ValueAverage paid since the Sep 8 filing, 40 trading days

$50.41price +7%

Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted

$87.6162% upside

Assumes 3.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.27 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 8, 2026. Net debt $1.6B, not deducted.

FCF valuePrice at a 4% yield on trailing free cash flow ($0.3B)

$118.13price −54%

Fundamentals

The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.

Bull vs bear

Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.

Top bullish points 5 of 5

ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $87.61, 62% above the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 102% to $2.59 in FY2025.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.8% (price / FCF 10.3×): $312M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 438% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count down 5.6% in a year: $168M of buybacks over 12 months.

Top bearish points 5 of 5

Balance sheetNet debt of $1.6B, 51% of the market cap (Jul 31, 2026).
ProfitabilityGross margin of 12%, below the 37% median for the 254 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 3.5%, below the 11% median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 7.1% above its Market Value of $50.41, the average price paid since the Sep 8 filing.

All fundamentals

P/E 19.2 · FCF yield 9.8% · ROE 9%

Valuation

P/E: 19.2×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
Price / FCF: 10.3×
FCF yield: 9.8%
EV / EBITDA: 11.1×
Price / sales: 0.35×
Price / book: 1.79×
Market cap: $3.2Bprice × diluted shares
Enterprise value: $4.8B

Growth

Revenue, 12 months: $9.1B
Sales growth, 12 months: +6.0%vs the 12 months before
Sales growth, 3 yrs: +3.9%/yrfrom FY2022
Diluted EPS, 12 months: $2.76
EPS growth, last FY: +102.3%
Net income, 12 months: $166M
Net income growth: +44%12 months vs before

Profitability

Gross margin: 12.0%
Operating margin: 3.5%
Net margin: 1.8%
FCF margin: 3.4%
Return on equity: 9%
Return on invested capital: 7%

Balance sheet

Cash & short-term inv.: $110M
Total debt: $1.7B
Net cash: −$1.6B
Debt / equity: 0.97×
Interest coverage: 3.0×operating income / interest

Cash flow & returns

Free cash flow, 12 months: $312M
FCF growth, 12 months: +438%
Dividend yield: 2.10%$67M paid
Payout ratio: 41%
Buybacks, 12 months: $168M5.3% of market cap
Share count, 1 year: −5.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
Stock-based comp: $36M

Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From ABM Industries’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.

The business

FCF $0.3B · Sales +4%

Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
Free-cash-flow yield9.8%
Free-cash-flow margin3%
Gross margin13%
Operating margin4%
Return on invested capital9%
Return on equity9%
Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
Net debt / EBITDA3.9×

Chart & levels

Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.

Fair value est.Market ValueDrag across the chart to see any day

Key levels

Every level vs today’s $54.00

52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$37.39−30.8%
Market Valueavg paid since Sep 8$50.41−6.6%
PriceMon Nov 2 close$54.00you are here
52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$54.04+0.1%
Fair value est.base case$87.61+62.2%

Momentum & 52-week range

RSI 69 · 5 days −0.1%

$54.00nowMV

52-wk low $37.39high $54.04

Off 52-wk high−0.1%

5 days−0.1%

vs 50-day avg+8.3%

vs 200-day avg+20.3%

RSI (14), last close69

Market cap$3B

Signals

Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.

Setup & signals

No setup armed

All setups

No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.

ABM is outside our quality screen

One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.

Voices & buzz

Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.

Who’s talking about it

Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on ABM Industries in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.

No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.

Compare with peers

Closest in size in Diversified Commercial Services

CompanyPrice1 yearvs fair valueP/EMkt cap

MGRCMcGrath RentCorp$129.44+9.4%+20%+95%19.9×$3B VVXV2X$83.20+3.5%+46%+87%26.5×$3B EQPTEquipmentShare.com$16.04−6.6%—n/a178.3×$4B CTOSCustom Truck One Source$10.63+0.3%+80%n/a81.4×$2B KFYKorn Ferry$77.97+1.9%+21%+26%14.5×$4B FTDRFrontdoor$89.30+1.9%+34%+28%23.2×$6B

Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.