QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Diversified Commercial Services
Custom Truck One Source CTOS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 11% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: there isn’t enough data.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 8% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $10.67at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.58
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 11% below its 52-week high (Jun 25), but the business held up: earnings per share turned to a profit, operating margin +0.9 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) −0.6% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share turned to a profit, operating margin +0.9 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) −0.6% of market cap since the high), others slipped (revenue growth rate −3.6 pts). The price is 11% below its 52-week high.
The price is 11% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −3.6 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$2.0B → $2.0B (+3.3%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+9.4% → +5.8% a year (−3.6 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a profitheld up
- Operating margin7.3% → 8.2% (+0.9 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−0.4% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−0.6% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −11%, sector median +4% since Jun 25about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −11%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +3% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
Now: P/E 81.4×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.97Jun 25 | $5.34Nov 20 | $10.63 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | n/a | n/a | 81.4× |
| EV/Sales | 2.2× | 1.5× | 2.0× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for CTOS: Capital spending isn't tagged for the latest period in SEC XBRL data. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CTOS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.58
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.42
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.43
How it ranks
Where CTOS stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+5.8% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 32%of 1,814
- Operating margin8.2% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 37%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital6.8% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 34%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $10.67 · FCF value $9.97
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 9.1×, below the 12.3× median for the 230 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 7.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 5.4% median for the 380 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.9×, below the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 81.4× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Balance sheetNet debt of $1.6B, 68% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 6.4% in FY2025 from 9.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 9 points in two fiscal years, to -4% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 10.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 81.4 · ROE 4% · Sales +6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 81.4×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.1×
- Price / sales
- 1.17×
- Price / book
- 2.92×
- Market cap
- $2.4Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $4.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.13
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $29M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 22.6%
- Operating margin
- 8.2%
- Net margin
- 1.4%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 4%
- Return on invested capital
- 7%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $15M
- Total debt
- $1.7B
- Net cash
- −$1.6B
- Debt / equity
- 2.01×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $0
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $10M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Custom Truck One Source’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin23%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital5%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA10.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $10.63
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.34−49.8%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$10.63you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 26$10.67+0.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$11.97+12.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +18.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CTOS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Custom Truck One Source in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Diversified Commercial Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.