QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals ACAD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 33% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 16% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Down 34% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 12%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $25.99+27%
- Market Value
- $24.38price −16%
- Off 52-wk high
- −33%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.69
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 33% below its 52-week high (Aug 25), but the business held up: shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 33% below its 52-week high.
The price is 33% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.1B → $1.1B (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.20 → $2.20 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$146M → $146M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin7.6% → 7.6% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −33%, sector median −1% since Aug 25changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −33%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 36.3× at the high → 24.3× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 25, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($30.57, Aug 25) the price assumed about 18%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($18.62, Oct 13) about 9%; today about 11%. The last 3 years delivered 27%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 27%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $30.57Aug 25 | $18.62Oct 13 | $20.47 |
| Implied growth | +18% | +9% | +11% |
| P/E | 13.9× | 8.5× | 9.3× |
| P/FCF | 36.3× | 22.1× | 24.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ACAD’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ACAD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.69
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.23
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
How it ranks
Where ACAD stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate27% · price below our base caseTop 30%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.1% · free cash flow vs market capTop 49%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+12% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 43%of 1,814
- Operating margin7.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 35%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $25.99 · MV $24.38 · FCF value $10.23
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 27.5% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.84 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $25.99, 27% above the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 9.8% in FY2025 from −10.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 69% to $2.30 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 9.3× vs a 29.0× median for the 135 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 16.0% below its Market Value of $24.38, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 12% over the last 12 months, from 27% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 22% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count up 2.5% over 12 months, above the +0.8% median for the 203 Health Care companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.19): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 9.3 · FCF yield 4.1% · ROE 36%
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.3×Health Care median 29.0×
- Price / FCF
- 24.3×
- FCF yield
- 4.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.11×
- Price / book
- 2.71×
- Market cap
- $3.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +27.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.23
- EPS growth, last FY
- +69.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $380M
- Net income growth
- +71%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 91.1%
- Operating margin
- 7.6%
- Net margin
- 33.4%
- FCF margin
- 12.8%
- Return on equity
- 36%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $956M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $146M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −22%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $58M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +16%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin62%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital26%
- Return on equity36%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
- Net debt / EBITDA−9.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $20.47
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$18.62−9.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$20.47you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$24.38+19.1%
- Fair value est.base case$25.99+27.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$30.57+49.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days +3.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.19
- Year-ago EPS$0.26
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ACAD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.