QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Organon & OGN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- #5 furthest below its fair value estimate of the 1314 we value
- FCF yield 18%, top 2% of the 1145 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $39.27+184%
- Market Value
- $13.54price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.80
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Oct 30), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($13.84, Oct 30) the price assumed about −15%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($5.70, Mar 30) about −28%; today about −15%. The last 3 years delivered −7%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −7%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $13.84Oct 30 | $5.70Mar 30 | $13.82 |
| Implied growth | −15% | −28% | −15% |
| P/E | 17.7× | 7.9× | 17.7× |
| P/FCF | 5.6× | 2.8× | 5.6× |
| EV/Sales | 1.8× | 1.5× | 1.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, OGN’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much OGN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 4.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.80
- Volatility
- 60% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
How it ranks
Where OGN stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate184% · price below our base caseTop 1%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield18% · free cash flow vs market capTop 2%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 25%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−3.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 7%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $39.27 · MV $13.54 · FCF value $69.10
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.48 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net debt $7.1B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 17.9% (price / FCF 5.6×): $675M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $39.27, 184% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 17.7× vs a 29.0× median for the 135 Health Care companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 20% over the last 12 months.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.2×, below the 5.2× median for the 217 Health Care companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 78% to $0.72 in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt is 7.2× shareholders’ equity.
Balance sheetNet debt of $7.1B, 189% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 53.3% in FY2025 from 59.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 4.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 17.7 · FCF yield 17.9% · ROE 20%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.7×Health Care median 29.0×
- Price / FCF
- 5.6×
- FCF yield
- 17.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.62×
- Price / book
- 3.16×
- Market cap
- $3.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $10.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −3.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.78
- EPS growth, last FY
- −78.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $213M
- Net income growth
- −57%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 53.1%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 3.5%
- FCF margin
- 11.1%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.5B
- Total debt
- $8.6B
- Net cash
- −$7.1B
- Debt / equity
- 7.17×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $675M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −13%
- Dividend yield
- 0.53%$20M paid
- Payout ratio
- 9%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +4.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $72M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Organon &’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales −2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield17.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin54%
- Operating margin23%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−2%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $13.82
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.70−58.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Apr 30$13.54−2.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$13.82you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$13.84+0.1%
- Fair value est.base case$39.27+184.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days +0.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
OGN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Organon & in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.