QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Autodesk ADSK
Not in a dip by our rules: 20% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 10% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $370.55+48%
- Market Value
- $227.65price +10%
- Off 52-wk high
- −20%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.39
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $249.61
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$187.72−24.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 10$227.65−8.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$249.61you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$310.25+24.3%
- Fair value est.base case$370.55+48.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.9%; bull = 8.5% and 14.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ADSK’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ADSK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.39
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.13
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.01
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $370.55, 48% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 32.1× is 43% below its own average of 56.6× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 54% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 58%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 12 points in two fiscal years, to 37% in FY2026.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.0×, above the 0.4× median for the 88 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 2.1% in the last fiscal year, below the 18% median for the 118 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 15.6×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 9.6% above its Market Value of $227.65, the average price paid since the Sep 10 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Autodesk in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 32.1 · FCF yield 5.4% · ROE 54%
Valuation
- P/E
- 32.1×3-yr-end avg 56.6× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 18.6×
- FCF yield
- 5.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 23.2×
- Price / sales
- 6.76×
- Price / book
- 15.57×
- Market cap
- $52.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $52.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +17.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.9%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.72
- EPS growth, last FY
- +2.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.6B
- Net income growth
- +57%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 91.2%
- Operating margin
- 26.2%
- Net margin
- 21.1%
- FCF margin
- 36.4%
- Return on equity
- 54%
- Return on invested capital
- 58%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.2B
- Total debt
- $3.5B
- Net cash
- $661M
- Debt / equity
- 1.03×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.8B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +51%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.6B3.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $706M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Autodesk’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $370.55 · MV $227.65 · FCF value $345.99
Assumes 12.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.9% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $13.45 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 28, 2026. Net cash $661M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days −1.0%
The business
FCF $2.8B · Sales +16%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin36%
- Gross margin91%
- Operating margin28%
- Return on invested capital25%
- Return on equity54%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ADSK fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on ADSK or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.