QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Okta OKTA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 10% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $168.92−19%
- Market Value
- $194.29price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.40
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $208.24
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$62.93−69.8%
- Fair value est.base case$168.92−18.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 26$194.29−6.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$208.24you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$232.13+11.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, OKTA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much OKTA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.40
- Volatility
- 68% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.26
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 5.1% in FY2026 from −22.8% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 16% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
GrowthSales grew 11% to $3.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 77.4% in FY2026 from 74.3% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 15% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $168.92, 19% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 125.8× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 4% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
ValuationTrades 7.2% above its Market Value of $194.29, the average price paid since the Aug 26 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Okta in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 125.8 · FCF yield 2.6% · ROE 4%
Valuation
- P/E
- 125.8×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 38.0×
- FCF yield
- 2.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 12.12×
- Price / book
- 5.34×
- Market cap
- $37.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +16.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.66
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $296M
- Net income growth
- +76%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 78.1%
- Operating margin
- 7.5%
- Net margin
- 9.6%
- FCF margin
- 31.9%
- Return on equity
- 4%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.3B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 77.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $979M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +15%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $445M1.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $503M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Okta’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $168.92 · MV $194.29 · FCF value $128.81
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 16.3% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.48 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 27, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days −2.3%
The business
FCF $1.0B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin31%
- Gross margin78%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
OKTA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.