QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Block XYZ
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 10% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $160.95+111%
- Market Value
- $78.28price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.78
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $76.22
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$49.09−35.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$76.22you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$78.28+2.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$84.85+11.3%
- Fair value est.base case$160.95+111.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.3%; bull = 8.5% and 13.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, XYZ’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much XYZ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.78
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.49
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.41
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $160.95, 111% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.4% (price / FCF 12.0×): $3.9B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 266% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 7.1% in FY2025 from −1.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 42.8% in FY2025 from 34.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 54% to $2.10 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 129.9× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt rose 77% to $7.3B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 4%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Block in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 129.9 · FCF yield 8.4% · ROE 2%
Valuation
- P/E
- 129.9×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 12.0×
- FCF yield
- 8.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 29.5×
- Price / sales
- 1.85×
- Price / book
- 2.10×
- Market cap
- $46.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $45.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $25.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.56
- EPS growth, last FY
- −53.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $357M
- Net income growth
- −88%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 46.4%
- Operating margin
- 4.7%
- Net margin
- 1.4%
- FCF margin
- 15.5%
- Return on equity
- 2%
- Return on invested capital
- 4%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $6.4B
- Total debt
- $5.7B
- Net cash
- $707M
- Debt / equity
- 0.26×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +266%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.9B4.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.2B
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Block’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $160.95 · MV $78.28 · FCF value $160.03
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 11.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.38 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net cash $707M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days −0.3%
The business
FCF $3.9B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin46%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.4×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.68
- Year-ago EPS$0.54
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
XYZ is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.