QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Precious Metals
Alamos Gold AGI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 50% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 50% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 34%
- Deepest drop from a 52-week high in over 3 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $21.04−24%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −50%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.92
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($27.45, Oct 30) about 20%; today about 20%. The last 3 years delivered 30%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 30%/yr (revenue)
| Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $27.45Oct 30 | $27.76 |
| Implied growth | +20% | +20% |
| P/E | 13.1× | 13.2× |
| P/FCF | 40.3× | 40.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AGI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AGI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.92
- Volatility
- 55% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.44
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.41
How it ranks
Where AGI stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate24% · price above our base caseLowest 33%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield2.5% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 32%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 23%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+34% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 13%of 1,814
- Operating margin61% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 1%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $21.04 · FCF value $13.16
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 30.1% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.68 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 40-F filed Mar 26, 2026. Net cash $423M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 204% to $2.10 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 55.2% in FY2025 from 37.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 60.7% in FY2025 from 31.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 30% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 34% to $1.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $21.04, 24% below the price.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.3%, below the 1.2% median for the 33 Basic Materials companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.5%, below the 3.8% median for the 45 Basic Materials companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
All fundamentals
P/E 13.2 · FCF yield 2.5% · ROE 22%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.2×Basic Materials median 17.3×
- Price / FCF
- 40.7×
- FCF yield
- 2.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.49×
- Price / book
- 2.64×
- Market cap
- $11.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +34.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +30.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.10
- EPS growth, last FY
- +204.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $886M
- Net income growth
- +212%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 55.2%
- Operating margin
- 60.7%
- Net margin
- 49.0%
- FCF margin
- 15.9%
- Return on equity
- 22%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $623M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 1097.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $288M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +18%
- Dividend yield
- 0.34%$40M paid
- Payout ratio
- 4%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Alamos Gold’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin70%
- Operating margin49%
- Return on invested capital20%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $27.76
- Fair value est.base case$21.04−24.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$27.45−1.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$27.76you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$55.33+99.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 33 · 5 days −8.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AGI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alamos Gold in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Precious Metals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.