QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Precious Metals
Harmony Gold Mining Company HMY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 42% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 42% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 34%
- Operating margin 41%, top 5% of the 1288 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $31.86+110%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −42%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.50
5 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HMY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HMY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.50
- Volatility
- 63% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.50
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.45
How it ranks
Where HMY stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 5 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate110% · price below our base caseTop 7%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield9.9% · free cash flow vs market capTop 12%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 49%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+34% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 13%of 1,814
- Operating margin41% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 5%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital41% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 7%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $31.86 · FCF value $385.88
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 20.1% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.03 a share (fiscal year to Jun 30, 2025, converted from ZAR at 0.06016), from the 20-F filed Oct 31, 2025. Net cash $667M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.9% (price / FCF 10.1×): $949M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 44.9% in FY2026 from 22.8% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 41.2% in FY2026 from 18.2% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $31.86, 110% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 5.4× vs a 17.3× median for the 38 Basic Materials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 1 of 5
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.50 vs the S&P 500 and 63% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 5.4 · FCF yield 9.9% · ROE 48%
Valuation
- P/E
- 5.4×Basic Materials median 17.3×
- Price / FCF
- 10.1×
- FCF yield
- 9.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.3×
- Price / sales
- 1.60×
- Price / book
- 2.12×
- Market cap
- $9.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $9.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +34.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +26.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $46.32
- EPS growth, last FY
- +102.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Net income growth
- +104%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 44.9%
- Operating margin
- 41.2%
- Net margin
- 29.6%
- FCF margin
- 15.9%
- Return on equity
- 48%
- Return on invested capital
- 41%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $519M
- Total debt
- $570M
- Net cash
- −$51M
- Debt / equity
- 0.13×
- Interest coverage
- 21.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $949M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +46%
- Dividend yield
- 2.81%$268M paid
- Payout ratio
- 15%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Harmony Gold Mining Company’s SEC filings, reported in ZAR and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $9.8B · Sales +49%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$9.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin50%
- Operating margin47%
- Return on equity48%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+49%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $15.20
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$13.32−12.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$15.20you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$26.04+71.3%
- Fair value est.base case$31.86+109.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 36 · 5 days −4.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
HMY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Harmony Gold Mining Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Precious Metals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.