QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Agriculture
Adecoagro AGRO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 37% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: a capital-spending surge is squeezing its free cash flow.
Worth knowing
- Net cash = 12% of its market cap
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −37%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.43
52-week range 30% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $9.56
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for AGRO: free cash flow is squeezed by a capital-spending surge (capex is 86% of operating cash flow over the last 12 months, vs 59% in FY2022), so a DCF on today's free cash flow would understate the business. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AGRO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 4.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.43
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.11
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.07
How it ranks
Where AGRO stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield3.2% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 42%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.2% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 43%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−6% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 5%of 2,184
- Operating margin6.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 35%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital5% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 27%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetNet cash of $170M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 4.6×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.1×, below the 0.7× median for the 47 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.5% ($35M paid over 12 months).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 6.6% in FY2025 from 18.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.3× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $8M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 19 points in two fiscal years, to -1% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.8× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 3.2% · ROE -1% · Sales −6%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 31.5×
- FCF yield
- 3.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 4.6×
- Price / sales
- 0.98×
- Price / book
- 0.85×
- Market cap
- $1.4Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $1.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −6.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.08
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$8M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 24.6%
- Operating margin
- 6.6%
- Net margin
- −0.6%
- FCF margin
- 3.1%
- Return on equity
- −1%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $383M
- Total debt
- $213M
- Net cash
- $170M
- Debt / equity
- 0.13×
- Interest coverage
- 1.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $44M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −35%
- Dividend yield
- 2.50%$35M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $10M0.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Adecoagro’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.1B · Sales +39%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin−8%
- Gross margin26%
- Operating margin17%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+39%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $9.56
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$7.13−25.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$9.56you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$15.25+59.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days −4.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 10
- DateTue Nov 10
- Year-ago EPS$0.26
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
AGRO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Adecoagro in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Agriculture
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.